Election polls: A plea against polarization

26/02/2024

Polling data is the most important currency in the run-up to elections. They can be used to amplify sentiment and to promote or demote candidates. WU Professor Jurgen Willems on the dangers of poll reporting – and how to avoid them.

European elections, parliamentary elections in Austria, presidential elections in the US, and many more: 2024 marks a year of elections. This makes it all the more important to remind the media of their responsibility when it comes to reporting on poll data.

This is what WU Professor Jurgen Willems does in a commentary in the journal Public Money & Management, which is well worth reading. Polls, he says, have a strong influence on undecided voters. Sensationalist headlines and clickbait articles about poll results may attract attention in the short term, but they often distort reality and hinder democratic decision-making in the long term.

Journalists should be aware of this responsibility and report on election polls in a nuanced way – with important context information such as sample size and survey methods. “Statistics are too complex” or “people aren’t interested in these details” should not count as valid excuses when it comes to this essential contextualizing work.

Together with Kenn Mayfroodt from Ghent University, Jurgen Willems has formulated six recommendations to counteract the distortion of public opinion by election polls. These are primarily aimed at journalists who report on polls - but also at politicians and researchers.

Read the full commentary in Public Money & Management: Debate: Reporting pre-election polls: it is less about average Jane and Joe, and more about polarized Karen and Kevin

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