Europe at the crossroads
As a collection of nation states, the EU has fallen behind the USA and China economically. It was only when the war in Ukraine broke out that European integration started to regain faster momentum again. In any case, the next five years will be decisive for setting Europe’s future geopolitical course.
The upcoming European elections will be held from June 6 to 9. Around 400 million people in the European Union will be entitled to vote, and a total of 720 representatives will be elected to the European Parliament – 20 of them from Austria. The members of the European Parliament vote on trade agreements, monitor the EU’s institutions, and keep a close eye on how taxpayer money is spent. Experience shows, however, that many citizens care much less about European elections than they do about national elections. It is a paradox: The more powerful the European Parliament has become and the more its role has shifted from an advisory capacity to actual decision-making, the lower the voter turnout has been.
The next five-year legislative period of the European Parliament will determine how important a role the united Europe will play in times of geopolitical change and armed conflict. Gabriele Tondl, associate professor at WU Vienna’s Department of Economics and head of the Research Institute for European Affairs at WU, is convinced that Europe needs to unite under a single roof such as the one provided by the EU. She says, “Europe will only be able to assert its position in the global balance of power if it operates based on a strong and united economic, political, and military framework.” There is a risk that Europe’s position will not only be weakened by the global influence exerted by the world’s superpowers, the USA and China. As Tondl points out, “Dynamic emerging economies – think BRICS – are also gaining more and more economic power and political clout.” For Karl Aiginger, honorary professor at WU’s Department of Economics, the European elections will decide many things: “They will decide whether Europe will be able to assume a leading role in a reordered world, with Africa as a partner, and act as a role model for democracy. They will also decide whether Europe will become a role model in climate policy, and whether it will be able to fend off nationalism and the threat of protectionism.”
Divided we fall
A united Europe is essential for ensuring that European interests have enough political and economic weight in international relations. “If the EU member states allow themselves to be divided, this wouldn’t only weaken the EU as a whole,” says Erich Vranes, head of WU’s Institute for European and International Law. Especially small and medium-sized member states would be affected as well, risking to see their international influence dwindle in the long term. Overall, the challenges for European integration and the cohesion of the EU are likely to manifest themselves more and more in the Union’s external relations in the years to come, in connection with the EU’s future role as a geopolitical player.
Focusing on future-oriented goals
There is no doubt that the EU has fallen behind the USA and China in economic policy. The question now is how the EU can regain lost ground. According to Karl Aiginger, Europe has fallen behind only with respect to old indicators such as growth rates and labor productivity. As he points out, “The EU is a leader when it comes to more modern goals such as quality of life, sustainability, openness and peace, and fair elections. It’s also a leader in climate policy, even though this varies for different countries and governments.” For Karl Aiginger, the US can no longer serve as a role model, as life expectancy there is falling due to drugs, public health problems, and a poor healthcare system. China, on the other hand, has achieved admirable growth rates, but it suffers from a selfish, authoritarian leadership and is population is beginning to shrink due to the state-imposed one-child policy, as Aiginger points out.
According to Gabriele Tondl, it is crucial for the EU to take problems in individual member states very seriously. She says, “Interestingly, problems that initially seem to be located at the level of individual member states – right-wing extremism, for example – often quickly appear in other EU states as well.” In a community that has grown into such a tightly integrated economic and cultural union, more and more shared problems are popping up that require joint action.
EU-skeptical decisions by national courts
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) is an institution that operates independently from the member states and all other EU institutions. In this respect, a success for the Euroskeptic parties in the upcoming elections to the EU Parliament is not expected to have a direct impact on the ECJ’s decisions. However, according to legal expert Erich Vranes, anti-EU rulings by national courts are a growing problem, in particular because they do not recognize the primacy of EU law over national law and over national court decisions, or only recognize them to a limited extent. As Professor Vranes explains, “The primacy of EU law is fundamental to European integration and the single market. This is because the fundamental primacy of EU law over national law guarantees a level playing field, in other words, it ensures a functioning single market that serves as the centerpiece and driving force of European integration.”