According to Statistics Austria, 17,408 children in Austria saw their parents divorce in 2023. For children, a divorce often means growing up in a household with only one parent. Social science research shows that this results in a number of disadvantages during their subsequent lives, from poorer school performance to more frequent mental health problems and a lower life expectancy.

However, it is still unclear whether this correlation also indicates a causal relationship. “It’s difficult to say whether growing up in a single-parent household is really the reason for these problems or if they are actually due to socio-economic factors,” explains Martin Halla from the Department of Economics at WU Vienna.

Together with Wolfgang Frimmel and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer from the JKU Linz, Halla wanted to get to the bottom of this question. The researchers analyzed the development of children in Austria who were born between 1976 and 1987 and whose parents divorced before the kids reached the age of 18. Out of the total of 355,100 children born during this period, 13.5 percent saw their parents divorce before they turned 18. Statistically, these children were more likely to have kids at a younger age and to attain lower levels of education.

Office flirts as drivers of divorce

To find out to what extent these differences are causally related to parental divorce, the researchers developed a study design based on a remarkable statistical correlation: Several studies have shown that the likelihood of divorce increases for people whose job involves interaction with a high proportion of opposite-sex co-workers. “The reason for this is that workplaces with a balanced gender ratio make it easier for people to get to know other potential partners,” says Martin Halla. “This correlation gave us an opportunity to identify a causal effect of divorce on those children whose fathers had left the family after meeting a new partner at work. With this study design, we’re describing a realistic divorce scenario.”

To filter for these scenarios, the researchers focused their analysis on children whose fathers were employed at workplaces with a balanced gender ratio or were working with women of the same age and job category at the time of birth – and then left their family in the following years.

The implications of this scenario are manifold, but they are well known to many children of divorce: Following a divorce, the children usually grow up in a single-parent household with their mother. Such households often have weaker financial resources, live in poorer areas, and have smaller social networks and fewer positive male role models.

Significant negative effects

Looking at the educational and job market success of these children, the results are clear. “Our findings show that this situation has negative effects on long-term development,” Martin Halla summarizes. For boys and girls alike, the probability of attending university is reduced by 9 to 10 percentage points. Boys also have poorer job market outcomes and a higher probability of dying before the age of 25. Girls, in turn, are more likely to become pregnant at an early age.

“These results show that taking into consideration the best interests of the children affected by a divorce must be more than just an empty phrase, because the children suffer consequences that are felt throughout their lives,” says Martin Halla from WU. Since the time that the children covered by the study came of age, however, there have been some important social and political changes likely to influence the lives of children of divorce for the better. As an example, Halla mentions joint custody, which was introduced in Austria in 2001.

However, Halla believes that political decision-makers have a duty to take further measures – such as developing social programs specifically targeted at development of children from broken families. “In the end, it’s probably less about whether parents divorce or not and more about whether children grow up in a stable and loving environment with the right caregivers – whatever that environment may look like.”

Detailed results of the study and further information

Frimmel W., Halla M., Winter-Ebmer R. (2024): How Does Parental Divorce Affect Children’s Long-Term Outcomes? To be published shortly in the Journal of Public Economics.

Link to the study